The Buzz: Analysis This - Top 5 Predictions for Video Game Future
This week, The Bee gazes into his crystal ball
If there is one employment The Bee would like to have, it is analyst. They are paid to say opinions about the video game industry for benefit of ignorant stock traders. If they are very lucky, they are occasionally almost correct, even though the best analyst Michael Pachter has admitted, "None of my predictions are correct."
And his peers are much worse. In 2006 Richard Doherty asked his crystal balls about the coming console war.
"It's going to be a challenge for Nintendo," he has said, "because the PlayStation 3 now may have greater appeal to the same older people and non-gamers Nintendo is going after."
Dough!
In 2007 Evan West said "our contacts indicate that a refreshed DS is complete. It is thinner (it has no GBA port), has on-board storage, and larger screens."
Nintendo said, "No it isn't."
You can't fire me I will quit!
Of course sometimes analysts hit the nail, just as two times a day Mrs Bee's oven clock is telling the right time - because it is broken! Even Mr Pachter has said he predicts with his gut. The Bee's gut can only predict that he would like some delicious tempura!
Here are some predictions from my brain.
Top 5 Predictions for Video Game Future
Prediction 1. Virtualisation
In 20 years the number of gamers in virtual worlds has increased from nine autistic Denver computer science post-graduate students to more than several million 'ordinary' people from many walks of living. World of Warcraft alone has ten million subscribers.
The Bee thinks this trend will continue. More and more people will spend more and more time in virtual worlds until eventually they don't have remaining time to play games. For compensate, they will play virtual games, to control with their avatars.
Due to technical restraining, however, the only game available for the first decade will be Pong. Later it will be replace with Peggle.
Ultimately, the virtual edition of World of Warcraft will be release to universal acclaim. Its virtual subscriber base will grow until virtual productivity is adversely affected and V-WoW is made crime by virtual Emperor.
Many will die in virtual revolution..bmp)
Prediction 2. Nintendo Wii will nearly cause human extinction
The Nintendo Wii is selling phenomenal. Every unit which comes from the factory is sold before it can say, "Hey, nice shelf" and this is true for much more than one year. No matter that there are not many games and they are mostly disappointment, the Wii sells like wild cakes.
Wii shortages will continue, but inevitable they will be followed by shortages of components, and finally the natural mineral substances that make components. This will have 'knock-up' effects, as for example economic recession, hyperinflation, famine, war for resources, and of course epidemics of bipolar disorder and nervous exhaustion.
Nations will dissolve and humankind will regress as pre-technological animals in small hunting-gathering communities. Many will die in tribal skirmishes for artefacts of Link, Master Chief, and Solid Snake, who will be idols of violent warring religions.
Eventually, feudalism will evolve from religious orders, societies will develop agrarian system, and there will be uneasy intertribal alliances cemented by mutual reliance on trade and diplomatic agreements.
Soon afterwards, Wii production will resume..bmp)
Prediction 3. Casualisation
In the childhood of video games, it was very simple to play a game. Left, right, left, please hit the ball, I have hit the ball!
Yawning.
Then over years computers are growing more complex and games are big and not so simple! Early fighting game IK+ was with a joystick and one button. To play Tekken 4 on the alternative hand it is possible to do more than one hundred moves - to do them all you must have 50 brains!
Now days it is swinging towards the other way again. In excellent Assassin's Creed you can climb on walls and jump and murder bystanders but you only must push in a direction and press one button sometimes. If video game characters are puppets on a string, Altair is Pinocchio. He is controlling himself... like Pinocchio!
Kratos is as Pinocchio in God of War and in recent failure The Bourne Conspiracy Mr Jason Bourne is Pinocchio on cracked cocaine! It is going X> kill, somersault, kill, headbutt, kick, smashing, kill, run, wrestle [...loading...] kill, punching, kill, bite, going to bed, wake up, brushing teeth, punch, kick... Y> punch, kill, kick. Et cetera!
The Bee forecasts this trend will continue and become more prevailing. Pinocchio will become a real boy. To play a future video game, all you must do is put it in a console and press 'Start'. Then the action will happen automatically and you must not move again until the game is complete.
Metal Gear Solid 4 is the first game of this kind.
These games will be similar as films and it will not be easy to see the different, but The Bee will give you a special analyst tip: to tell them apart simply ask a conservative which one he is blaming for violence and child fat..bmp)
Prediction 4. Peripheral inflation
When The Bee was young, he was laughing at people with video game peripherals. For example Andelko had bought a lightning gun to play Time Crisis - Boom! You are ridiculous Andelko! It isn't even good! And what is this, Eye toy? You look like a child with disease!
Oh lord. Lately of course peripherals are better. With Guitar Hero it is very fun to play with the guitar! The Bee also likes to play Singstar with the microphone (although not his neighbours) and he would like to play the excellent Rock Band with two friends when he has sold his home and vehicle to pay for Europe version!
Mario Kart Wii steering wheel is disappointment.
With most of these games crazy popular, we can expect many more coming. The Bee anticipates first a full-sized motorbike as arcade game Hang On and also a car cockpit as Sega Rally. Later, it will be full sized car so GTA XIV co-players can have scripted conversation about prostitutes. We will play in the garage.
Soon later will be Counterstrike peripheral to play shooting in one big map and running around. It will be as Laserquest but with n00bs and racism. You must play it on the football pitch and setting up will take one day.
Eventually, World of Warcraft peripheral will require forcible occupation of Ireland..bmp)
Prediction 5. Peripheral deflation
There is very much talk in the last year of 'one console future', thanks to babbling. This is as likely as 'one car future' and 'one website future' and completely idiot but never mind.
The Bee agrees that consoles will reduce, but he thinks to nothing. One day, there will be no consoles or peripherals to sit in the living room and embarrass prospective sons-in-law who wish to appear responsible. Instead, video games will be implanted neurally and controlled with thinking, like the monkey controls the robot arm to give him food.
To play the video game you will think 'Start!' and it will start. Boom! The real world will disappear and it is replaced by many polygons and fantastic fiction environment. And speaking of environment, this will be good news for Nintendo - because there will not be components, Nintendo must not need to ignore Greenpeace criticism any more.
But the problem is it will not be easy to know who is playing a game. It will be all like...
"Hello Ringo, what's happening?"
"Eat my testicles, Commander Jerkingface!"
"I am begging your pardon?"
"Oh, excuse me. I am playing video game."
"I see, sorry to bother you."
"No problem... now suck my angry bullets!"
"But I... oh, I see. You are playing."
"That's right, tart-dragging idiot! And I am going to kill your insolent head!"
"Okay friend, I see you are busy. Goodbye."
"Oh no, I am running out of health! I am going to die!"
"Better luck next time."
"..."
"Ringo? He's dead (in real life). Call the ambulance!".bmp)
Prediction 6. I will see you here next week!
Goodbye! The Bee is an industry insider who has fed on the nectar of over three decades' worth of gaming. All opinions expressed are the author's own.