Mobile Games 2008 Part Four: Distribution

As part of our series of features looking at publishers' predictions for 2008, we asked them what they think will change about the way we buy mobile games this year.

Will operator portals continue to dominate, or will other distribution channels become more common? Clue: most people think it's the former.

"Over the air pay-per-download from operators will remain the prevalent model," says Tim Harrison of EA Mobile, although he thinks that handset manufacturers and off-portal services will become more popular during 2008.

Gameloft's Gonzague de Vallois thinks exactly the same thing, as do many of our interviewees.

"Carrier portals will remain the main source of acquisition as they are the entry door of users to the mobile internet," he says. "But manufacturers' channels and publishers' channels will also grow, as off-deck business models are arriving along with mobile advertising. Companies including Nokia, Samsung, Apple and even Google and Microsoft will no doubt be present in this market, along with publishers who can offer their games direct to consumers."

Vivendi Games Mobile's Paul Maglione is also enthusiastic about the potential of the handset makers' mobile game offerings this year.

"We are very excited about the Nokia Content Discoverer channel, and about Ovi generally," he says. (Ovi is Nokia's suite of online/mobile services, including N-Gage and its Music Store, if you were wondering.) "We are also seeing good results via the Samsung and Sony Ericsson channels, so that will probably be the innovation in terms of distribution in 2008 and going forward. But distribution still is, and will continue to be, mostly driven by the carrier deck."

The operators will remain top dogs then, but publishers are looking to other ways of getting games onto our handsets.

"The handset is coming into its own as a consumer electronics device," says Sunil Gunderia of Disney Mobile. "As such, the capabilities exist for games and other content to get to the phone by a number of different methods and payment systems. This opens the opportunity for sideloading, Bluetooth and memory cards to all become legitimate opportunities for distribution."

If the operator portals remain the most popular place to buy mobile games, what do they need to do to get more of us buying more often?

Chris White of Glu Mobile has one idea:

"The key breakthrough will be when WAP browsing becomes as commonplace as sending a text message or making a call," he says. "As flat data charges are introduced, users will be encouraged to browse for longer and download free demos, which will increase their confidence when making purchasing decisions. Essentially, users will spend longer browsing on their phones and shopping for content."

However, what about the price of mobile games?

Does it need to come down to target more people, or rise to ensure developers get a return on their investment?

"Consumers are price-sensitive," admits de Vallois. "But on the other hand, we cannot have the price of the game fall under a certain limit, otherwise we're not able to provide good games."

He'd like to see more try-before-you-buy offers, albeit with a short trial period to make it "more of a tease than an invitation to test the game for weeks or months".

Digital Chocolate is one of the companies testing the idea of web-based game trials that let people click a link to buy the mobile game, both on Facebook and elsewhere.

"We've been experimenting with using web trials to drive adoption and intend to do much more with this in 2008," says DChoc's Trip Hawkins. "It makes sense because viral discovery and free trial is so easy on the web, which combines nicely with the ubiquity of phones and relatively friction-free mobile operator billing."

However, not everyone is so sure that publishers will be selling a big proportion of games themselves in 2008.

"Bigger publishers will try to go directly to the consumers," says Christopher Kassulke of HandyGames. "But Gameloft just closed its 'Connect' service, so it is still in discussion if this step makes sense at all to be successful in the future. Maybe operators have to open the market for publishers again…"