Nokia should bite the bullet: scrap MeeGo and drop support for Symbian immediately

Stephen Elop might have claimed Nokia has no plans to cut off support for Symbian in the immediate future, but those working on the platform shouldn't read all too much into it.

That's according to Pyramid Research senior analyst Stela Bokun, who claims Elop's failure to write the OS off – despite Nokia's rather public adoption of Windows Phone – is not the result of a sound business decision.

Rather, it's a sign of Nokia's CEO blinking when confronted with the faces of his colleagues.

In a note issued following the revelation of Nokia's strategic partnership with Microsoft, Bokun said the company is in for a torrid 2011, thanks in no small part to the slow death of Symbian.

Rather than propping it up for another six to eight quarters (according to Bokun's estimates), Nokia would suffer less pain in the long run if it made the tough decision and dropping the platform in one fell swoop.

"First, 2011 is likely to be a very bad year for Nokia, much worse than what most of us analysts could have expected," said Bokun in the note.

"While Nokia expects to ship another 150 million Symbian devices in its transition to Window Phone, one really wonders which operators will want to include a Symbian smartphone in their portfolio, knowing that the OS is on its deathbed and that the demand for it will be practically non-existent? Not many, I assure you.

"Nokia needs to start shipping its first Windows Phone 7 device ASAP if it is to leave the muddy waters in which its currently swimming."

No go for MeeGo

Similarly, Bokun sees little profit in continuing to back MeeGo.

"What does Nokia stand to learn from shipping only one MeeGo device?" she adds.

"By announcing that there will be no MeeGo upgrades or follow-ups, Nokia is virtually killing any potential success for the device and has absolutely nothing to learn from such endeavour.

"It seems as if Mr. Elop simply didn’t have enough resolve to stand in front of both Nokia's MeeGo team and the news-thirsty industry analysts and journalists and say, 'Guys, there won’t be a MeeGo device. MeeGo NooGo! It just doesn’t make sense! We are remaking our company and will start with a clean slate!'

"This apparent lack of resolve on behalf of Nokia’s number one, and ambiguity surrounding the need for MeeGo and the future of Symbian, has resulted in an instant 13% tumble in Nokia’s shares."

What are you waiting for?

In short, Bokun concludes that, if Nokia is to become a Windows Phone advocate, it needs to do it as soon as possible.

The market isn't going to wait around while the company finds its feet on its new home – it needs to act now.

"It remains to be seen how today's announcement will affect Nokia, Microsoft and the industry as a whole," states Bokun.

"If all else fails, at least Nokia’s employees - at least those who survive the upcoming changes - are likely to get a free MeeGo device as a Christmas present from Santa Elop – there will be too many left in stock."

[source: Pyramid Research]